Zero Lead Time Revisited

Several months ago I put up a short paragraph about Zero Lead Time.  It was too brief to be useful and yet, according to my site statistics, it is far and away my most widely read post.  The range of available zero lead time products has expanded rapidly since then and I feel obligated to delve a little more deeply into the subject.

What Is Zero Lead Time?

From a lean perspective zero lead time means that you can get exactly what you need, exactly when you need it, in exactly the amount you need.  Products and services with these characteristics allow both producers and consumers to carry no inventory.  This removes all risk of producing large batches before defective products are identified.  A consumer will only spend money exactly when they need to spend it, and the physical transportation costs are minimized.  In essence it eliminates most of the seven types of Muda after the initial product creation.

What Are Some Zero Lead Time Products

Music - Downloadable digital music was the first zero lead time product to market and is quickly becoming the first to mature.  Music has become a Long Tail industry.  Thanks to innovators like Derek Sivers you can now find any song, no matter how obscure, with just a few clicks of a mouse.  Derek's Book Anything You Want is a very good read if you want more insight into how this came about.  Musicians worldwide now have multiple options for getting their work in front of fans who will pay them for it.    If none of the multitude of companies promoting digital music are the right fit for an artist, they have the option of building their own site for relatively little expense and promoting it through social media.  The only remaining gatekeepers in music are a musician's self-doubt and complacency.

Books - E-books and digital audiobooks are rapidly overtaking the print media market.  While there will always be a place for small specialty book shops that cater to aficianados, the big national retailers are feeling the pressure.  Borders has already closed its stores.  Barnes and Noble just managed to get its Nook e-reader into production in time to capture 25% of the market and prevent a similar fate.  Publishing houses are having to rethink their business models.  Authors can now self publish electronic versions of their work or set their books up for print on demand.  There are still some growing pains to be faced in this industry.  The quality of self published work is varied.  Writers are not necessarily editors.  If self publishing authors are not rigorous in seeking reviewers prior to publication the quality of the work can be overshadowed by grammatical distractions.  Markets are adaptable however and it is likely that freelance editing is a niche ready to explode.

Movies - The digital delivery options for movies and TV shows fall into two catagories and neither is truly without lead time yet.  Streaming services like Netflix can give you instant access to thousands of movies, but you are limited by their current catalog.  Amazon and iTunes allow you to download content and play them back without anchoring yourself to an internet connection.  My recent experience with iTunes however (a six hour download time) suggests that they have a long way to go to meet the requirement of delivering it when I want it.  However both of these models have significant advantages over running to the video store and paying late fees.  YouTube has become a plaform for everyone (including my 5 year old son) to try their hand as a writer, actor or director

References - Throughout my education and for most of my career finding an obscure fact that I needed for a current project involved first finding, then paging through a massive volume on a dusty shelf.  Invariably I would need to consider the time lapse between the edition that I had and the date of my investigation and adjust my calculations accordingly.  Very often the pace of the advancement of the subject was greater than the pace of production for the latest revision of the reference material.  With online references however this gap has been closed.  Online references and knowledge bases like Wikipedia have vastly improved both the availability and the accuracy of reference materials.  Now remote villages in India can access the same information as elite western universities, given a stable broadband connection.

Information - The business of data storage is quickly changing.  As broadband networks expand, more and more people have access to rapidly growing cloud based data storage networks.  With these services you can have access to all of your files anywhere in the world without a hard drive.  What started with Dropbox and backup services like Carbonite has now expanded into Amazon's Cloud Drive and Apple's upcoming iCloud.  From punch cards to flash media drives there has always been a need for portability of files, and we have certainly come a long way, but the immediate availability of unlimited storage with instant access will eventually eliminate the entire local data storage industry.


What's Next?

Products - While they are a long way off, there have been advances in 3D printing that now allow uploaded designs to be quickly turned into solid realities.  Multiple individual components can be quickly assembled into more complicated functional devices.  If you would like to glimpse the future of what distributed open source 3D printing could become, check out Makers by Corey Doctorow.  The technology already works there are only cost barriers to proliferation.

Food (coming soon) - Amazing as it seems, through special cartridges it is now possible to program a meal and click print.  Again the technology is not yet cost effective for mass productive for these 3D food printers, but in time, not only will you be able to get a meal in minutes, but you will also have a chance to customize the nutrient profile.  See a video of one in action here.


Wrapping Up


The world is getting faster all the time.  New technologies are allowing society to leapfrog over its first attempts at advancement.  Imagine a digitally interconnected world that allows the next best thing to teleportation.  That is the future of zero lead time.

A Reductionist's Philosophy

"one does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity..." Bruce Lee

Stop for a minute and think of something big.  Something huge.  Something that makes other things move out of its way.  Got it?  OK now let me ask you a few questions about this enormous thing you have in mind.  Is it quick and responsive and flexible?  Is it easy to maintain?  Can it support itself easily?  Is it efficient in using resources? 

The answer to all of these questions is probably no.  Large things have lots of inertia.  They cannot be quickly sent in a new direction.  They cannot be halted quickly when it becomes clear the direction is wrong.  They are often at risk due to their dependence on any number of supporting systems.  Size is generally inversely proportional to efficiency when you take the whole into consideration.  Large things can often do one thing very well while doing everything else very poorly. 

Given these facts growth is actually a counterproductive strategy in life.  Nothing, in the end, is too big to fail.  Targeting growth is a recipe for failure in the long term.  I have personal experience with those who have added too much weight to their frames, from either muscle or fat, who have begun to break down long before their time.  I have worked for companies that were industry leaders when they were small and were forgotten when they grew too large.  Large bodies of knowledge are slow to respond to new developments.

When what is required to maintain a body or lifestyle or a home or a family is greater than the its capacity to produce this input, its end is near.  The only options are to shrink and suffer the pain required by this reduction, or to delay the inevitable by borrowing against an unknown future.  The first is the only real option.  The second assumes that somehow change will occur without an incentive.

It seems to me that large companies are beginning to fail and large homes are beginning to sit vacant and large people are facing tough choices and large vehicles are being parked and large debts incurred while delaying the pain of the inevitable downsizing will soon require painful repayment.

The New Fragility

With the recent twitter fueled revolution in Egypt, stability does not quite mean what it once did.  My perspective is not as broad as it should be, but it seems to me that this should scare more than just nations.  Many corporations are at risk of the same collapse given the right spark, and the spirit of change seems to be catching. 

Is what happened in Cairo any different that what the American people did to GM when money got tight?  GM had been dictating to everyone they came into contact with for decades.  Suppliers had to bend over backwards and try to do the impossible because of the power they weilded.  Consumers had continued to pay rising prices because that was the required sacrifice to own a GM product.  I was a victim myself two times over.  I overvalued the brand. People did not demonstrate in the streets but they certainly stopped voting with their checkbooks, and an industrial icon went bust.  Their fall was cushioned by a bailout or they would now be gone.  Consumers who thought a new vehicle was required every year changed their minds quickly when the world went broke overnight.  When the pain of sacrifice is greater than the pain of action people will be motivated to act to change their behaviors.  Suddnely their daily drivers seemed fine for a few more years.  I cannot speak for anyone but myself, but having worked as a supplier to GM, I can honestly say that I felt satisfaction not sympathy at their downfall.

This principle applies internally as well.  When the percieved pain of finding a new job is outweighed by the pain that is felt everyday coming to work, even the most stable workforce will evaporate.  The limits to which a worker will allow themself to be pushed is a complicated equation based on their debt level, mobility, family requirements, and fear of starting over somewhere new.  There is always a solution to that equation however.  When the breaking point is reached there will be no warning, and the first few departures will often open the floodgates.

For me it really boils down to inclusion.  In business, people want to feel that they are working with their company and not for it.  That feeling allows workers to overlook many small problems and keep things moving forward when progress might bog down.  They want to know that they are important.  Every employee knows that a company needs to make money to survive, but as soon as money is prioritized above people, and ill considered labor cuts force the remainder to do more with less, the pressures begin to build and productivity declines.  In other organizations the same principles apply.  Even in government if the people do not feel that they are represented by the government either they must be intimidated into compliance or the government will change.  In democratic countries this manifests itself with sweeping changes in party control.  In authoritarian regimes it is usually much uglier.

If you lead an organization or even a family it is a good time to take a close look at how included everyone is feeling.  It feels like there is a wave building that has the potential to sweep away many things that once seemed stable.  Don't get washed away.

How Ignoring Conventions Can Simplify Your Life

It's 12:00 and I am mad!  I have just driven halfway across town on my lunch break for a quick workout and the entire parking lot is full.  Not only that but there are two cars hovering for the next spots to become available.  To add to the absurdity I can't even get out of the lot because it is one way and the person in front of me is waiting for someone trying to back out of a tight spot and is having a lot of problems pulling it off.  I have already wasted too much time and will now have to head back to the office frustrated that I did not get my workout in.  The worst part of it all is that I have only myself to blame.  I was taking my lunch an hour and a half late.

Some of you may be saying, "Who takes lunch at 10:30?," but I can assure you making that small adjustment to your schedule will pay big dividends in reduced frustration in your life.  At 10:30 you are squarely between the end of the morning rush and the beginning of the lunch rush.  If you go to the gym, the equipment is virtually empty, there is plenty of parking, and you can still pick up a snack on the way back to work without having to wait in ridiculously long lines.  Try it sometime and you will thank me.

Why am I bothering to tell you this story?  Underlying my habit of taking an early lunch is a deeper principle that has helped me to eliminate a lot of useless waiting and frustration from my life; Questioning the motivation of conventions.  

Why does everyone go to lunch sometime between 11:00 and 1:00?  Because it is halfway through a standard eight hour workday.  Because the standard is three meals a day and we love symmetry.  Because that is when everyone else goes.  Right?  Wrong!  I have decided that, for myself at least, none of these are a valid reason.  The result is that my family has shifted our schedule back about 90 minutes and we no longer have to wait for a table at lunch or dinner.  Since we eat our last meal of the day at 4:30 we have plenty of time to work off some of those calories by taking a walk after dinner, or getting the house picked up before bed, or playing super heroes until bath time.  If we have some errands to run we are getting them taken care of while everyone else is eating, which means shorter lines at the grocery store and less crowding in the aisles.

The timing of meals is not the only example of this principle however.  Here are five more ways that questioning conventions can save you time and money.

1.  Skip the engagement ring - This one is controversial with the ladies but when you stop and think about why people drop ridiculous sums on a flashy diamond it is hard to come up with a good reason.  If you are saying it is a "symbol of their love" right now, think about what that means.  Would it be equally symbolic if a guy handed you a big stack of cash when he asked you to marry him?  That is a little too close to long term prostitution for my taste.  Also if you have ever tried to sell a ring back, unfortunately I have, you know that it is worth about 30% of what was paid for it.  The money that you would have spent on a ring will very often cover the cost of a trip to the tropical island of your choice.  I recommended taking the trip.

2.  Don't be an early adopter - Nothing in life will save you as much money as patience.  That new model of TV is awesome, but if you can be patient and wait a few months you will usually pay 50% less for it and it will still be awesome.  The only benefit of having the latest and greatest is so you can tell everyone how cutting edge you are.  Cool is expensive.  If you can resist the urge to be the one who has the newest thing before everyone else you will come out way ahead financially.

3.  Park in the first place you come to and walk to the door - Seriously, are you really saving any time by cruising around for ten minutes trying to get the perfect parking place?  How many times have you gotten mad at someone for taking a parking place that you were trying to get to?  Unless the weather is ridiculous a little walk will not kill you and, in the spirit of every little bit helps, may be good for you.

4.  Don't "stock up" - Buying what you need for the next few days is a recipe for success.  If you only have what you need for the meals you have planned then it is very easy to see when you need to head to the store again.  Also you will throw away far less food in the course of a year.  Nothing can hide in an empty fridge and things that can be seen get used.  It is very hard for some people to see that buying in bulk is a bad thing. Humans seem to be programmed for just in case, not just in time.  The downside of "stocking up" is that you need more storage for all of the excess, which means you need a bigger place to live, which means you are paying a lot more for housing.  All of this so you can have lots of stuff stashed away, and half of the time you can't find it when you need it and go out and buy more because it is easier.

5.  Don't buy things that you can borrow - Yes it is nice to have a book that you read once and liked and may read again someday, but 99% of the time you won't.  If you had checked it out from a library you could have gotten the same result without the cost.  Not only that but they will pay to store it on the shelves and it is always available to check out again.  Tools can be checked out from most auto parts stores at no cost.  Buying things that will only be used a limited number of times or at long intervals is just another manifestation of "stocking up".  Resist the urge and you will have less clutter to manage in your life and more disposable income.Focus on doing things instead of having things.

What are some of the things that you do that defy convention and make your life easier?  I would love to hear about them in the comments.

Eleven Books That Will Change Your Life in 2011

I read a lot.  In the last three years a lot of that reading has been focused on the Self Improvement genre.  Just writing that makes me feel a little like I should be on a couch somewhere trying to understand why my childhood is the root of all of my problems.  Self improvement as I see it though involves understanding how your own mind and body work, and how you can use that knowledge to make your life into the one you want to have instead of the one that you have.  Of course that statement assumes that you are unhappy with at least some aspect of your life.  If you are and are interested in changing a few things hopefully I can save you some time with the book list below.

1.  The Four Hour Work Week - This book set a new standard for self improvement.  If you want to become a renegade entrepreneur Tim can help you.  If you just want to free up as much of your time as possible and free yourself to be anywhere you want to be he can help you with that too.  If nothing else this book will convince you to challenge your assumptions and eliminate things in your life that are dragging you down.  This is the book that got me started re-examining my life.

2.  Outliers - All of Malcolm Galdwell's writing is worth reading but this one is particularly interesting.  His analysis of success and successful people finds hard work, persistence, and timing to be the true recipe.  Do you want to be world class at something?  Spend 1000 hours of dedicated practice on it and you have a good shot regardless of your ability.  Do you want to be a successful hockey player?  If you were not born in the first three months of the year you have an uphill battle.  Read the book if you want to understand that one.

3. How We Decide - This book woke me up to the reality that intuition is just another kind of thinking.  There are processes that go on behind the scenes in our heads that are faster and more accurate than the ones we think we can control.  Understanding the implications behind the neuroscience can forever alter how you look at the world and the sometimes confusing decisions that

4.  Spark - I used to work out because I thought I needed to keep my body in shape.  If things slid a little bit though, I did not sweat it too much.  A little extra flab won't kill me, right?  Then I read this book and found out that not exercising has serious effects on my brain as well.  That gave me a whole new kind of motivation. Skipping is no longer an option.

5.  The Four Hour Body - This is the newest book on the list and to be honest I have not read the whole book yet.  What I have read however has blown away assumptions that I have had for years regarding what is required to take control of your physical appearance and performance.  I am sure this one will have lots of haters, but they all have the option of not taking Tim's latest advice.

6.  The Art of Non-Conformity - Chris Guillibeau is one of my heroes now.  Anyone who drops out of high school as a sophomore because he was bored then proceeds to convince JuCo admissions that he really does not need  a diploma to take classes, then repeats that trick a few times with the end result being two degrees by the time the rest of his class finished their senior year get my respect.  His encouragement to rebel is irresistible.

7.  Drive - Dan Pink turns the whole concept of motivation on its head in this book.  It turns out that according to studies motivating people with rewards is a losing proposition.  The real interesting part is that after you have read the book you will try to tell yourself that you knew it all along; that it is all very much common sense.

8. Tribes - Seth uses this little book to lay out why we need leaders not managers and how small, dedicated groups are changing the world.  Then he invites you to become one and tells you how.

9.  Linchpin - My favorite concept in this book is the "Lizard Brain"  This is how Seth describes the fear of taking action to create something.  Read the book and he will teach you to be indispensable.

10.  That's Not What I Meant - Ever wonder why you get into an argument with your significant other every time you try to figure out where to eat?  Have you ever been floored when someone reacts in a completely unexpected way to something that you have said?  Do you get frustrated in conversations with people who simply will not let you get a word in?  This book will help explain why these things happen.

11.  Predictably Irrational - We are all irrational.  Dan Ariely can prove it to you.  The weird thing is you can know it but you still can't change it.  This book can't give you control over your irrational behaviors,  but at least it can help you to understand them a little better.  

Do you have any to add to the list?  Have you read the books and disagree?  Let me know in the comments.

Ten Tips For Improving Through Limitation

Have you ever tried to change a behavior and failed? Join the club. If this has not happened to you don't bother reading the real of this post and also quit lying to yourself. There is a lot of guilt associated with failing to change unwanted behaviors. So many success stories highlight the strength of will of those who are successful at losing weight, getting out of debt, quitting something cold turkey, etc. that there is an unstated implication that anyone who fails is lacking in fortitude. I have been there and wallowed in my own guilt when I have regressed. The truth is changing behavior is one of the hardest things in life to do. Failing to correct bad habits can lead quickly to wasted time and money and poor health. With this in mind, overcoming the difficulties of behavior change is crucial. As Chip and Dan Heath said in their excellent book Switch shaping the path can go a long way toward making a change. One of the most effective ways I have found to shape my path is to find a way to physically limit myself in a way that encourages the change that I want to make.  Below are a few examples:

1.  If you want to change your eating habits trade in the cooler you take your lunch in for a 6" X 6" Lock n' Lock container. If it does not fit in the container it does not go with you.  Then get rid of all of the other lunchbox options in your home. 

2.  Take all of the large dinner plates out of the convenient cabinets and hide them away for special occasions.  With only the smaller 8" plates ready to hand, you are limited to what can physically fit on a plate and thus eat less.

3.  Tie the light switch in the laundry room to the outlet that powers your iron.  When the light goes off the iron will shut off as well.

4.  Set up an automatic savings account then forget about it.

5.  Have all of your bills automatically paid by credit card, then have the credit card automatically pay itself off once a month.
  * find a card with great mileage, points or cash back options you get a double bonus here

6.  Install motion sensing lights in your kids rooms and you will save on energy and the frustration of following them around and shutting off lights.

7.  Move to a smaller space when the opportunity arises.  Nothing eliminates waste like downsizing.  It eliminates the potential for buying "stuff" by requiring you to find space for every new purchase at the expense of getting rid of whatever is currently occupying that space.  You will also save time cleaning up and maintaining your home.

8.  Limit your dishes to what you need for one meal.  Not only will you be forced to clean up after each meal before you can eat the next, but you will probably stop using your dishwasher because you will never have a full load to run.

9.  Limit the number of hangars in your closet.  When you run out of hanger space its time to donate some clothes to charity.

10. Buy several small laundry totes to replace one large hamper.  When one of the small totes is full, take it to the laundry and wash a load of clothes.  When the empty tote is full take it to your closet and put the clean clothes away.  This simple visual system makes doing laundry a more frequent, but also more manageable task, and avoids massively unproductive "laundry days".

Try these and let me know in the comments if they worked for you.  If you have ideas or examples of how to change behavior through physical limitation I would love to hear them.

Bragging a Little

Normally I am a pretty modest sort of person, but I was really struck by my wife's post on her blog Wednesday. It was nice to get a look at some of the changes we have made from her perspective and I thought that I would link to it here.